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CMHC: HOUSING ACTIVITY TO MODERATE IN 2019 AND 2020

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is also predicting a housing slowdown next year, according to its 2018 Housing Market Outlook.

2019-Predictions

It expects housing starts to fall to a range of 194,000 to 204,500 units.

“Our key takeaway from this year’s outlook is moderation in Canada’s housing markets for 2019 into 2020,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist. “Housing starts are expected to decline from the higher levels we’ve seen recently. We expect resales in 2019 and 2020 to remain below recent peaks while prices should reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and population growth.”

Here are CMHC’s forecasts for select Canadian metro areas:

  • Metro Vancouver: Lower sales and higher inventories are expected over the next two years, resulting in lower prices compared to market highs.
  • Toronto: The GTA will see balanced conditions with moderate sales growth and home price growth in line with inflation. Rising homeownership costs are expected to feed a strong rental market.
  • Calgary: Expected population and employment growth are expected to lift sales in 2019 and 2020, though the average MLS price will continue to face downward pressure before rising again in 2020.
  • Montreal: Housing starts and sales are to be sustained by rising net migration. Demand for resale single-detached homes are expected to remain relatively strong.